The final spurt of 2025 is proving more difficult than hoped for the surface finishing industry. The VOA's new member survey paints an economic picture that reflects the mood of the entire German industry: The situation is serious, but not without bright spots. Precisely because the challenges are massive, it is worth taking a closer look at the areas in which companies are nevertheless demonstrating stability - and at those prospects from which opportunities can be derived for 2026.
A difficult year - and an economic turnaround that is still a long time coming
The economic situation remains tense. According to the VOA survey, the industry is struggling with exactly the same structural problems in the second half of 2025 that have been holding it back for many months, including particularly high electricity and gas prices in an international comparison, a weak order situation in German industry - i.e. a reluctance to invest - and declining export demand. The continuing shortage of skilled workers despite the economic slowdown and demographic bottlenecks, which are expected to worsen in the coming years, are also not conducive to growth. Last but not least, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, which also have a strong impact on the commodities markets, are exerting pressure. As a result, the significant economic recovery that has been hoped for some time is still not materializing.
Capacities remain stable - despite difficult conditions
However, one key indicator in the survey is surprisingly stable: capacity utilization in the second half of 2025 is at 77%, exactly the same level as in the previous survey in May 2025 - and interestingly also at the level of the first half of 2023. This is remarkable, as it shows that basic capacity utilization has remained stable despite adverse market conditions. By comparison, the low point was only 68% in fall 2024. A recovery can therefore actually be seen.
Sales and order trends: broad diversification instead of a slump
The turnover situation also shows a varied picture, with 41% of companies reporting stable turnover and 32% reporting a decline in turnover of around 9%. Nevertheless, 26% are pleased to report an average increase in turnover of 21%. A look at incoming orders is even more exciting: 41% report stable orders, 35% declines and 24% increases averaging 15%.
This is a pattern that can now be observed in many sectors, and the surface sector is also continuing to differentiate itself. While some companies are coming under noticeable pressure, others are succeeding in opening up new markets or bucking the downturn. This spread suggests that the degree of innovation, market focus and specialization are becoming increasingly important differentiators.
Energy prices remain "the" dominant factor
Hardly anything weighs as heavily on surface businesses as the cost structure for electricity and gas: 97% of companies rate electricity prices as very relevant, 88% say the same about gas prices. More than half(56%) now describe the energy price burden as considerable - and 6% even describe it as a threat to their existence.
However, it is interesting to note that both the burdens perceived as "considerable" and "moderate" have each fallen by 17% since May 2025. This indicates that some companies have at least partially adapted to the changed cost landscape - whether through energy efficiency measures, new purchasing models or optimized production planning.
Labour market: short-time work on the rise, willingness to train remains surprisingly robust
A key trend in 2025 is the comeback of short-time work . In May, the proportion of companies on short-time work was 6%, in November 2024 it was 12% and has now risen to 21%. At the same time, 21% of companies had to make redundancies - the third increase in a row. And yet there is a positive finding, as 47% of companies provided training in 2025 - an increase of 8% compared to May. Although the willingness to provide training for 2026 has fallen to 38%, it remains encouragingly high in a longer-term comparison (2021: 29%).
Sentiment at the end of the year and outlook
32% of companies view their own company's development until the end of the year positively or moderately, 29% negatively, of which 3% are very positive or very negative.
Compared to the spring of 2025, when "mediocre" dominated, this indicates a slight stabilization - especially as the proportion of very negative assessments remains consistently low. This shows that many companies are staying on course, albeit in rough seas.
What does this mean for 2026?
The message from the survey is twofold. On the one hand, the structural problems - energy prices, bureaucracy, demographics - remain on the agenda. Germany needs to make tangible progress here in order to strengthen its industry in the long term. On the other hand, it can be deduced from the data that there is basic stability; after all, capacity utilization remains above 75% and incoming orders have not collapsed. A quarter of companies are even growing, in some cases significantly. This spread shows opportunities if companies succeed in realigning themselves. Ultimately , this suggests that process innovation, quality leadership and increased efficiency are very important. The shift in the assessment of the energy burden also shows that the optimizations implemented in recent years are having an effect - even if energy prices have of course normalized to a certain extent. The fact that almost half of all companies are training apprentices despite the difficult situation shows a high sense of responsibility - and long-term thinking. The VOA identifies affordable energy, a reduction in bureaucracy and reforms in the social and labour market sectors as urgent areas for action on the part of politicians. Together with the BDI, BDA, vbw and ESTAL, this pressure will also be increased in 2026.
Conclusion: The industry remains under pressure - but it is not losing its room for maneuver
2025 was not a year of recovery. The surface finishing industry is showing remarkable resilience, continuing to invest in training, stabilizing its capacities and developing in an increasingly differentiated manner in the face of competition. The industry is looking ahead realistically - but not without confidence.