It is actually positive news that the share of renewable energies has risen to over 60 % of electricity generation in 2024. However, this means that our energy supply is becoming increasingly dependent on the weather. In the days of sailing ships, a prolonged calm was one of the worst things that could happen to a sailor. Without wind, the ship wouldn't move a meter - apart from the current, perhaps. When supplies ran low, the situation became tense. Weather phenomena such as the current dark doldrums in December ruthlessly reveal the weaknesses and inadequacies of the current energy supply system. This is because there is a lack of adequate electricity storage systems that could compensate for such a lull. The longer such a dark doldrums last, the more catastrophic the consequences - just like in the days before the steam engine and combustion engine. The current outages in wind and solar energy have already led to drastic production shortfalls and electricity price spikes - although it is fair to say that not only Germany was affected.
Energy shortages jeopardize livelihoods
For the surface industry, which relies on energy-intensive processes, the lack of electricity is just as much of a threat to their existence as temporarily exploding prices, which may make it necessary to halt production. Together with a poor to mixed order situation and therefore not very generous margins, the resilience of companies decreases.
Dark doldrums: security of supply as the Achilles heel of the energy transition
A look back at the dark doldrums in December 2024 shows the scale of the problem: energy generation from wind power collapsed, solar power also failed and electricity prices shot up to over 900 euros per MWh. Those who then have to obtain their supplies on the electricity exchange on a daily basis can quickly be faced with difficult decisions. Companies were sometimes forced to cut back on production. It is also worth noting that gas reserves fell by over 10% in just a few days because the gas-fired power plants had to supply such a large amount of energy. Now, the probability of a dark doldrums ten times as long or severe is not very high, but it shows what kind of distortions are conceivable here under unfavorable circumstances.
In 2025, planned measures will place an additional burden on competitiveness
The CO₂ price will rise to 55 euros per tonne, making fossil fuels even more expensive, while at the same time grid fees will rise - transmission system operators are forecasting a price increase of 3.4 %. In addition, companies must prepare themselves for a reform of electricity tax law. Although processes are to be simplified here, this is a laudable approach if it succeeds. However, this will not result in direct price reductions.
For the surface treatment industry, which relies on a continuous flow of energy - whether in electroplating, powder coating or thermal treatment - the cost of this remains a decisive factor for competitiveness. What's more, many processes in the surface industry, from painting and electroplating to plasma surface technology, require a continuous supply and cannot be stopped spontaneously without causing waste and additional costs. Interruptions or load shifts are generally not economically feasible. A company whose production has to be geared to the available energy supply falls massively behind globally and loses considerable competitiveness. Without massive investment in storage technologies or backup systems such as hydrogen, energy security will become a key challenge in the future. Ultimately, the question of how much a certain degree of energy autonomy independent of sun and wind is worth is becoming increasingly important. Cooperation between energy-intensive companies that jointly operate combined heat and power plants, for example, would be conceivable - because the larger and better utilized such a CHP plant is, the cheaper the energy is. However, larger companies in particular have long been weighing up whether it really still makes strategic sense to continue operating energy-intensive processes in Germany given the political winds of change. For many companies in the surface sector, however, emigration is not a viable option and they must face up to the circumstances.
Regulatory requirements and solutions: What companies can do
In addition to rising costs and security of supply, the year 2025 will bring new obligations, with the Energy Efficiency Act (EnEfG) forcing companies to reduce their energy consumption. This means that efficiency measures will not only be necessary from an economic point of view, but will also be a regulatory requirement. After all, the German government is planning to extend the electricity price package for energy-intensive companies in order to stabilize international competitiveness. However, there is no sign of a well thought-out concept that solves the core problems. Experts, including the Initiative Zukunft Wirtschaft e.V. (IZW), are therefore warning ever more loudly that without reliable framework conditions and affordable energy, deindustrialization will continue to gather pace.
Conclusion: Surface sector between transformation and pressure
The surface industry must adapt its processes to rising energy prices and regulatory requirements - at the same time, security of supply is declining due to dark doldrums and an inadequate backup system. In order to remain competitive, investments in energy efficiency, process optimization and, in the long term, alternative energies such as hydrogen are unavoidable. But if the capital for this is not available, the prospects are difficult. The coming months will therefore be another test - both technologically and economically.
CB